Statistical Model II (Dynamic) Results in Excel Table

Historic Results of Applying Model II (Dynamic)

"Win Rate" Chart of Model II (Dynamic)

Statistical Model I (Static) Results in Excel Table

Historic Results of Applying Model I (Static)

"Win Rate" Chart of Model I (Static)

Comparing Statistical Model I and Model II

1.  Model I

• Based on seasonal performance, which is more static
• Home and road adjusted
• The Spread is released from VegasInsider
• Unable to take into account recent events such as player injury

2.  Model II

• Based on recent performance
• Using the average of past 5 games
• The Spread is released from VegasInsider
• Being able to reflect recent events such as players swap 

3.  Betting Game

• This research project is for modeling the NBA ATS (Against The Spread) betting by statistical data..
• The money-making opportunity can be found from "the Spread by VegasInsider" and "the predictions by Model".

4.  Model Comparison

• The Win Rate of Model II is consistently higher than that of Model I
• It looks that the dynamic natures of NBA games need be reflected by the Model.

Spread

Definition: Given that a matchup of real equals in any sporting event is exceedingly rare, sports books create a point spread to handicap the superior team. It works as follows:

Team A is a real powerhouse. Team B is promising but inconsistent. When teams A and B meet, A has the clear advantage. So the sports book might set a point spread of 10 points on the game. That would mean the favored team -- team A, in this example -- would need to win by at least 11 points in order to "cover" the spread.

The sports book will manipulate a point spread to ensure that there's a fairly even distribution of bets on both teams in any contest... which ensures that the house makes money no matter the outcome.

For a more detailed explanation of point spreads and how they are set, check out Allen Moody's Sports Gambling 101.

ATS (Against The Spread)

  NBA ATS Ranking (by VegasInsider web)

PDIFF (Point Differential)

PDIFF has the same meanings as Average Scoring Margin (ASM)

References:
1.  2011-2012_NBA_Regular_Season_Advanced_Stats   (by NBAStuffer web)
GP PPG OPPG PDIFF PACE OEFF DEFF EDIFF SOS SAR CONS A4F WINS LOSS WIN% pWIN%

2.  NBA Team Average Scoring Margin    (by TeamRankings web)

Teams' Statistics

  NBA Teams' Statistics  (by TeamRankings web)

Team Players' Statistics

  NBA Players' Statistics  (by TeamRankings web) 

  NBA Players' Statistics  (by 82game web)